>Sender: >To: >X-Original-Message-ID: <005901bf3133$c54bde40$9acf69cf@pacbell.net> >From: "Peter McWilliams" >Subject: LA Times slowly comes around >Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 11:41:39 -0800 >X-Mozilla-Status: 8001 >X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000 > > >Recently, the LA Times, one of the most pro-Drug War papers in the country, >did an editorial supporting medical marijuana, sort of. Then it did an >editorial criticizing a new, tougher drug law, kind of. Now a general news >story about drugs actually acknowledges that there is opposition to the War >on Drugs--the first time I have ever seen such journalistically accurate >reporting of the Drug War in the Times. And it's not just one sentence, but >two: > >"Some critics of U.S. policy are already demanding an end to the nation's >war on drugs. News of higher cocaine and heroin production, as well as an >explosion in border confiscations of the designer drug Ecstasy, could >bolster their arguments that current anti-drug strategies are failing." > >This article is also enormously enjoyable because of a story about a drug >bust as L.A. International Airport--screenwriters and novelists take note! >("Based on a true story.") > >Enjoy, > >Peter > >------- > >Pubdate: Sun, 14 Nov 1999 >Source: Los Angeles Times (CA) >Copyright: 1999 Los Angeles Times >Contact: letters@latimes.com >Address: Times Mirror Square, Los Angeles, CA 90053 >Fax: (213) 237-4712 >Website: http://www.latimes.com/ >Forum: http://www.latimes.com/home/discuss/ >Author: Eric Lichtblau, Esther Schrader, Times Staff Writers > >MORE DRUGS FLOW INTO U.S. THAN ESTIMATED > >Enforcement: Flawed measurement of narcotics production, and the discovery >of a new brand of coca, mean estimates of trafficking are likely to surge >next year. That will change government tactics. > >WASHINGTON - Government authorities believe that they have badly >underestimated the flow of cocaine out of Colombia and other drug-producing >nations, a realization that casts doubt on years of basic assumptions >behind the war on drugs. > >Drug-intelligence officials are particularly alarmed over their discovery >of a new high-yield variety of coca being grown and processed in Colombia, >the No. 1 supplier of cocaine to the United States. > >That, together with a growing acknowledgment that their methods for >measuring narcotics production may be seriously flawed, means that >government estimates of global drug trafficking are likely to "skyrocket" >early next year, said officials in the drug-intelligence community. > >Estimates of cocaine production in Colombia alone could triple, two >government sources said. "It's going to be big," said one senior >law-enforcement official who asked not to be identified. > >The revised estimates, combined with a soon-to-be-released plan for >countering lax coordination among the various drug-intelligence agencies, >are likely to alter U.S. tactics in the $17.8-billion drug war for years to >come, sources said. > >Key policymakers said that the estimates of worldwide drug production, >while imprecise, are critical in allocating drug-interdiction resources, >plotting strategy and influencing diplomatic relations with drug-producing >nations. > >"The policymaker ought to have correct estimates of how [drugs are >flowing], patterns, where, when, so that you're not buying a bunch of Coast >Guard cutters to go to the Eastern Caribbean if most of your smuggling is >on maritime craft in the Eastern Pacific," Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, head of >the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, said in an >interview. > >Yet the new numbers jeopardize McCaffrey's ambitious goals for cutting >narcotics supplies to the United States some 25% by 2002 and 50% by 2007. >Some critics of U.S. policy are already demanding an end to the nation's >war on drugs. News of higher cocaine and heroin production, as well as an >explosion in border confiscations of the designer drug Ecstasy, could >bolster their arguments that current anti-drug strategies are failing. > >Authorities have been working quietly for several years to devise a better >way to track the global flow of drugs, combining their long-used satellite >photos of crop fields with new, more precise analyses of how poppy, coca >and other crops are processed into drugs for street sale. > >But embarrassing shortcomings in the system became apparent last month >after U.S. and Colombian authorities broke up a major Latin American >cocaine ring. The volume of cocaine that they now believe the "Juvenal" >network was bringing into the United States--up to 30 metric tons a >month--rivaled previous estimates of all cartel imports combined, officials >said. > >"There was just amazement that one organization would have the ability to >distribute that much cocaine a month," a law-enforcement official said. >"The whole Juvenal thing really just illustrates why we have to get our act >together in terms of reconciling these numbers." > >Indeed, even before final estimates are made next year, government >officials say they already have begun trying to assess what they mean. > >Some government officials believe that Latin American traffickers are >sending more cocaine to Europe than ever. Others think that growers are >stockpiling large supplies of the drug. Still others suggest that U.S. >residents are consuming more cocaine than previously feared. > >But outside observers such as Mark A.R. Kleiman, director of the Drug >Policy Analysis Program at UCLA, say that the estimates are little more >than guesswork used by the administration to hit up Congress for more >money. And they point to extensive surveys, emergency room admissions and >other data showing a decline in drug use in the United States. > >"More cocaine in the U.S.? Hard to believe," Kleiman said. "Where are all >the corpses?" > >The scramble to get a better handle on worldwide drug flow comes at a >particularly critical time in U.S. relations with Colombia. > >Anti-government rebels who control much of the narcotics trade have gained >strength in recent months, and Clinton administration officials argue that >only a major new infusion of cash to the Colombian government--as much as >$1.5 billion--can stop them. > >So far, the administration has been timid about pushing the proposal on >Capitol Hill, preoccupied with negotiations on higher-priority issues. But >the expected jump in the estimated flow of Colombian cocaine could move the >aid request to the front burner. > >"Clearly, if you look at the new numbers, we have to change our way of >doing business. We have to make a better argument for getting the >Colombians more help," said a senior administration official who asked not >to be identified. > >In Colombia, which produces 70% of the world's cocaine, a combination of >factors has scuttled the numbers that U.S. government officials have used >to shape anti-drug policy. > >Cocaine producers there have developed an insidious variety of coca, but >U.S. intelligence agents have limited access to a key drug-growing region, >which is controlled by the anti-government guerrillas. This has contributed >to U.S. authorities' flawed understanding of the region's growth and >processing methods. > >For years, intelligence officials said, most of the coca grown in Colombia >was of a variety, ipadu, whose leaves yield relatively small amounts of >cocaine. A higher-yield variety, E. coca coca, is grown in Peru and Bolivia >and sent to Colombia for processing and export. > >So when satellite photos of Colombia taken late last year showed acre upon >acre of new fields of coca, U.S. intelligence officials assumed that the >Colombians were growing the same low-yield coca plants they long have >cultivated, and they estimated that 165 metric tons of potential cocaine >were produced in Colombia. > >But recent forays inside Colombia's cocaine-producing regions by >intelligence officials revealed that the crops are a third, >never-before-seen variety of coca that yields higher amounts of cocaine and >takes only a year--rather than three--to cultivate. > >One law enforcement official acknowledged that analysts were "a little >late" in recognizing that they were dealing with something new. > >"We were caught a little bit by surprise by this new brand of coca," >another senior official said. "In addition, the processing is far more >efficient in Colombia than it is in Bolivia and Peru, which are the >countries we had been using to base our estimates on. We didn't completely >understand this when we came up with the numbers." > >The education has been sobering. > >"They're going great guns, [and] there's a whole lot more cocaine available >than we had thought to come into the U.S.," one official said. > >And the problem is not limited to Colombian cocaine. > >Officials in Washington said they are increasingly worried about the >discovery of large poppy plantations and heroin production in Peru. > >And U.S. border confiscations of Ecstasy--made mainly in illegalEuropean >labs and a staple at "rave" dance parties--have soared by some 700% this >year, according to Customs Service figures. > >The developments also underscore the need to improve lax coordination among >U.S. agencies that work to combat drugs. > >With the escalation of the drug war in recent years, more agencies than >ever have been gathering information on traffickers--from the Drug >Enforcement Agency and the FBI to the CIA, the State Department and others. >But turf battles have plagued their efforts, said a DEA official. > >Law enforcement officials tell of a notorious episode at Los Angeles >International Airport a decade ago in which border agents did not realize >that suspected traffickers were actually undercover DEA agents. The federal >officers ended up drawing their weapons on one another. Troubling lapses >continue today, officials say. > >The lapses could be as simple as overseas analysts failing to let border >agents know what they are hearing about traffickers using shipments of >fruit from Mexico or trees from Peru to ply their trade, officials at the >U.S. Customs Service said. > >"We weren't getting information from south of the border," one official >said. > >In an effort to address the problem, administration officials hope to >submit their plan for increased cooperation to the White House by the end >of the year. > >One part of the plan would let the Customs Service put its own intelligence >officers in drug-producing countries. Customs officials sent two agents to >Mexico about a month ago to test the strategy and hope to put others in >Colombia. > >The plan also would create a senior-level executive "secretariat," with a >staff of 30, to coordinate drug intelligence among federal agencies. Some >observers question adding a new layer of bureaucracy to an already >top-heavy system. And they ask why McCaffrey cannot get all the agencies on >the same page. > >The answer, say experts who track the drug war, is money. > >"These are agencies that are not used to sharing and are not used to >oversight," said Coletta Youngers, a senior associate at the Washington >Office on Latin America, a policy think tank. > >"But the only way to get effective authority over this would be to give >this new body budget authority. That has been the fundamental problem with >Barry McCaffrey's office. . . . He does not control the purse strings." > > > >================================================================ > >This message is sent to you because you are subscribed to > the mailing list . >To unsubscribe, E-mail to: